The Coalition parties will win and with a good majority.Former Liberal MP Neil Brown admits he is only backing Howard because nobody else will:
I thought I would chance my arm again and make a prediction about the coming election.Brown invokes the Neocon Fantasy strategery, which is the opposite of the Deer-In-The-Headlights strategy: instead of staring at your oncoming fate, you close your eyes and see whatever you want. As with the Iraq War, it's the nay-sayers, the "fairweather supporters" and the media who are causing all the problems:
It seems like a good time to do it, what with observers such as the Herald Sun's Andrew Bolt and The Australian's Janet Albrechtsen outdoing each other on how sad it is that John Howard will lose and that he should resign.
The polls are bad. But they are often the voters' legitimate way of giving some stick to the Government and encouragement to the Opposition, as well as some understandable self-indulgence on personal gripes before things settle down on election day and the unavoidable question of who the people really want to govern them must be answered.So yes, Howard's record on human rights is atrocious, but that is just self-indulgent grumbling from the peasants. Take for instance Iraq, which "cannot be ignored as an issue, so it should be turned into a good one" using the "overwhelming evidence that the surge is working".
My guess is that at least part of the bad result for the Government is due to the cumulative effect of issues such as David Hicks, refugees and everything else that goes under the banner of human rights, which are of course important, but do not determine the result of an election.
Industrial relations is also "a potential vote winner". Howard's hated Work Choice contracts are actually "an important contribution to individual freedom"!
And now, if you will excuse me, I must go and find my medication.